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My Own Analyst is a private blog giving do-it-yourself investors the insight of a seasoned full-time equity analyst.  Not only do subscribers receive actionable ideas and relevant market commentary, but they also enjoy access to an unbiased professional.  In addition to short-term trade ideas, which have enjoyed proven results based on predetermined exits within defined time-frames and 4:1 upside to risk, one of the more popular features is "Trash or Treasure", a service designed to highlight potential entries when a stock falls dramatically on news.  Is it a value, or is it a value trap?

 

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Short-term Trade Idea - Defined exit over defined time-frame (two weeks)

 

 01/25/2013

MAKO Trade Closes up 11.8%
I missed this yesterday, but MAKO had a high of 12.20 early on, so we closed at 12.19, a gain of almost 12%.  I should put an AAPL trade on, but I won't!  Shorting DORM is one I like, but I will wait for another couple of weeks, as I don't expect their Q4 EPS report until mid-Feb.  VRNG I like here, but it's just too hard to gauge the timing.Let's g with CSTR, which reports earnings on 2/7, inside the time-frame for this trade.  I added this (and VRTU, which has just flown) to the watchlist.  The stock is a very cheap

The Real Reason Why MSM Guided Light

MSM had an ok quarter, but the guidance stunk.  I don't talk about this company too much because it has been expensive for a while.  Going into the report, it traded 18 PE and 10.5X EV/EBITDA. This is similar to GWW and, to be fair, much cheaper than FAST.  

Guidance for Q2 is .86-.90 compared to 1.02 consensus and sales of 563-575 compared to 597.  The sales are light and represent a sequential decline rather than the 2.5% sequential increase that had been expected.  It's expected to be rather flat compared to the 563 last year after the company grew sales 6% in this quarter.

Here is what the new CEO said:

Mr. Gershwind concluded, "As I assume the role of CEO, I remain excited about the future of our company and our long-term strategic vision.  In the near-term, both the demand and pricing environments have softened since we last reported and fiscal cliff issues have yet to be fully resolved and digested by our customers. We have very limited visibility heading into the second quarter and as such are planning for a continuation of the current environment. We do see some signs for cautious optimism on the horizon, such as an uptick in December's ISM report, that would bode well should the trend continue. Regardless of environment, we expect to take share, to continue investing in key programs and to balance that with strong expense control like we demonstrated in the first quarter. We remain committed to executing on our time-tested strategy and expect to drive strong growth as the market improves."

 I think the key point here is AS I ASSUME THE ROLE, as it looks like this is a set-the-bar-low-for-our-nephew strategy.  Something to keep in mind, as this seems rather conservative.  If the stock were to trade at 16PE, it would be a bargain.  Not exactly sure how much the analysts will drop EPS, but I am guessing that this level works out to 72.  Looks like a great spot on the chart too.  Not sure we get there, but call it Treasure on the dip.

battle-ground.  Not as much a battle-ground as NFLX, but very high short-interest.  They are promoting their CFO to CEO, and this has created some uncertainty.  I have been following this guy since he joined the company and don't see this as anything but positive despite the appearance of something possible wrong.  The stock is offered at 48.82:
  • Target:  54.74
  • Stop:  47.62
  • Take-the-money:  50.99
 

MAKO Trade Closes up 11.8%

I missed this yesterday, but MAKO had a high of 12.20 early on, so we closed at 12.19, a gain of almost 12%.  I should put an AAPL trade on, but I won't!  Shorting DORM is one I like, but I will wait for another couple of weeks, as I don't expect their Q4 EPS report until mid-Feb.  VRNG I like here, but it's just too hard to gauge the timing.
Let's go with CSTR, which reports earnings on 2/7, inside the time-frame for this trade.  I added this (and VRTU, which has just flown) to the watchlist.  The stock is a very cheap battle-ground.  Not as much a battle-ground as NFLX, but very high short-interest.  They are promoting their CFO to CEO, and this has created some uncertainty.  I have been following this guy since he joined the company and don't see this as anything but positive despite the appearance of something possible wrong.  The stock is offered at 48.82:
  • Target:  54.74
  • Stop:  47.62
  • Take-the-money:  50.99

 

Trash or Treasure?

01/10/2013

 

The Real Reason Why MSM Guided Light

MSM had an ok quarter, but the guidance stunk.  I don't talk about this company too much because it has been expensive for a while.  Going into the report, it traded 18 PE and 10.5X EV/EBITDA. This is similar to GWW and, to be fair, much cheaper than FAST.  Guidance for Q2 is .86-.90 compared to 1.02 consensus and sales of 563-575 compared to 597.  The sales are light and represent a sequential decline rather than the 2.5% sequential increase that had been expected.  It's expected to be rather flat compared to the 563 last year after the company grew sales 6% in this quarter.

Here is what the new CEO said:

Mr. Gershwind concluded, "As I assume the role of CEO, I remain excited about the future of our company and our long-term strategic vision.  In the near-term, both the demand and pricing environments have softened since we last reported and fiscal cliff issues have yet to be fully resolved and digested by our customers. We have very limited visibility heading into the second quarter and as such are planning for a continuation of the current environment. We do see some signs for cautious optimism on the horizon, such as an uptick in December's ISM report, that would bode well should the trend continue. Regardless of environment, we expect to take share, to continue investing in key programs and to balance that with strong expense control like we demonstrated in the first quarter. We remain committed to executing on our time-tested strategy and expect to drive strong growth as the market improves."
 I think the key point here is AS I ASSUME THE ROLE, as it looks like this is a set-the-bar-low-for-our-nephew strategy.  Something to keep in mind, as this seems rather conservative.  If the stock were to trade at 16PE, it would be a bargain.  Not exactly sure how much the analysts will drop EPS, but I am guessing that this level works out to 72.  Looks like a great spot on the chart too.  Not sure we get there, but call it Treasure on the dip.

 

 

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